What would you consider a realistic exit multiple for this business? It's a microcap, low quality, growth will most likely slow down. If the stock falls out of favor it would not surprise me if it trades around a 10 PE in a few years from now. In my base case I get to 0,25 CAD (diluted) EPS end of 2027. With a PE of 10 there would barely be any upside left from here on. Curious what your few is on this.
I don’t own it so I haven’t modelled that out, and I’m not sure I think of exits in those absolute terms anyway. If it’s progressing to your satisfaction and still feel it’s trading at a fair price, you continue to hold. If you feel later on it’s slowing down and don’t see it growing at the same pace that’s when you consider an exit.
Fair. I still get about an 18% IRR from here on if my assumptions are right and I can exit the co at a 15 PE. I'm not planning on holding forever, that's why I'm thinking about an exit multiple. It's just that multiple expansion is not much part of the thesis anymore which considerably increases the downside.
Not looking for advice, just checking what other investors think about this topic.
Nice report. Surprised there wasn’t much movement after earnings.
Looks like it waited for the WolfBump. 😂
What would you consider a realistic exit multiple for this business? It's a microcap, low quality, growth will most likely slow down. If the stock falls out of favor it would not surprise me if it trades around a 10 PE in a few years from now. In my base case I get to 0,25 CAD (diluted) EPS end of 2027. With a PE of 10 there would barely be any upside left from here on. Curious what your few is on this.
I don’t own it so I haven’t modelled that out, and I’m not sure I think of exits in those absolute terms anyway. If it’s progressing to your satisfaction and still feel it’s trading at a fair price, you continue to hold. If you feel later on it’s slowing down and don’t see it growing at the same pace that’s when you consider an exit.
Fair. I still get about an 18% IRR from here on if my assumptions are right and I can exit the co at a 15 PE. I'm not planning on holding forever, that's why I'm thinking about an exit multiple. It's just that multiple expansion is not much part of the thesis anymore which considerably increases the downside.
Not looking for advice, just checking what other investors think about this topic.