I owned cipher in the $3s and sold in $15. My concern is that there is now a fair amount of hopium built into the price. Natroba is not really on the radar for most practitioners treating scabies and so I suspect the adoption as either a first line agent or second line agent will take a lot longer than expected with considerable marketing or additional studies needed. There is much better evidence and comfort on the use of oral ivermectin as either first-line or salvage therapy and treatment is much easier and well-tolerated. Topical treatments are difficult to apply. The relative efficacy of spinosad compared with permethrin or ivermectin is not clear and so that will make it even tougher to convince physicians to use. Not saying it wont become more popular, but I think it will take a long time.
I owned cipher in the $3s and sold in $15. My concern is that there is now a fair amount of hopium built into the price. Natroba is not really on the radar for most practitioners treating scabies and so I suspect the adoption as either a first line agent or second line agent will take a lot longer than expected with considerable marketing or additional studies needed. There is much better evidence and comfort on the use of oral ivermectin as either first-line or salvage therapy and treatment is much easier and well-tolerated. Topical treatments are difficult to apply. The relative efficacy of spinosad compared with permethrin or ivermectin is not clear and so that will make it even tougher to convince physicians to use. Not saying it wont become more popular, but I think it will take a long time.
financials reflect 2 months of natroba income - did you adjust for that
Natrobas spinosad has massive runway, lookup current cure rates on permithren its like 1% and leading treatment globally